Likelihood and magnitude

Woodlands, 50 km. Grey skies here. Grey skies there. The road is wet from an early morning shower (no, I don't mean my bathwater flowed onto the road; I don't get up that early anyway). Will it rain or will it shine? I hedge and put on sunblock but do not wear sunglasses. If the sun does come out, it is likely that I will be toasted. I cycle past a man dressed in trousers, long sleeves, knee guard and baseball cap. No helmet. If he falls, he would hurt his knees. Magnitude of the hurt, should the risk materialise, would be small. However, a knock on the head, can have a large magnitude of hurt. The sun does come out. I don't get sunburnt. I wonder if I've increased the risk of retina "sunburn" and cataracts when I get older.