Granularity and opportunity

Tampines, 49 km. Forecast: widespread rain in the afternoon. Nowcast: no rain where I am or where I'm going. The nowcast is updated every 15 minutes. It might rain later, but it isn't raining now. I note where it has been raining. Having gone deep into the data, I seize the opportunity to train on the race track. Aha. The trail last Sunday is different from the one today. Look at those narrow, slick planks! So we don't get splinters when we fall eh? I crash twice; once on the planks and once when my wheel digs into the mud as I corner downhill. Silly me, it's as if I left my brains in the carpark. Two laps, 1 hour 35 minutes (including crash time). I run out of water and have sudden hunger pangs. I'm so tired, I don't even bother to race the clouds. But I get home fairly dry; the only liquid falling on me is mud that falls up from the ground as my tyres churn.